The year gave us a bit of a roller-coaster ride (not too bad) but it seems we're ending up on the up side of things. I ended up the year selling stock in three out of the four accounts I have, and the other one had sold some the month before. Cathy's account had the first sale since opening it in April, and My IRA account has sold some in 3 of the last four months. It's definitely a harvest season for the market. I won't, and can't really say how long this will last, but it doesn't matter. If it keeps going up, we'll keep selling stock and stockpiling cash, because one thing I can say with full confidence, it won't last forever.
Something that came up this last month that I thought was worth mentioning, is how many of the guys that I get emails from had things to say about the economy...and by economy, I'm talking about the state of our currency. Some of these guys are chucking their whole business and starting a campaign to tell people how to safeguard themselves from the coming upheaval we are about to see with the dollar. They feel this is only the beginning of the rise in precious metal prices, mainly because the dollar will lose so much of it's value. They are calling for hyper-inflation because other countries are going to stop lending to us. This is a simplified version of what these guys are saying, but I'm hearing it from a few different sources, and that I feel is a bit disturbing. It also got me thinking about how all these 'send your gold in and we'll give you cash' ads are going on.
I decided to take a bit of my cash and put it into a silver ETF (exchange-traded fund.) I figure silver will never go to zero, and if this turns out to be even remotely true, I'll have a hedge. I figure periodically I'll invest up to half of my cash into the silver fund (the one I'm using is SLV, in case you were wondering.)
Anyway, Happy New Year everyone - I hope it is a good one. Be safe - see you next time!
Friday, December 31, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Continued Gains
We're still on the way up. I sold a couple more shares of DD. Funny thing was, yesterday I started looking at the accounts fairly early. There was not a sell signal yet. A half-hour later, DD jumped some more and it put the account over the threshold. Very unusual to have two months in a row that you are doing transactions. It shows the market is really in the middle of an upswing.
I look at the kid's accounts over the weekend, because they are in mutual funds, and I know they aren't going to change before the end of Monday. I don't know how I ended up doing the 4th Monday of the month, but that's the day I use for all the accounts. Just makes it easier that way. I'll really get screwed up if I start creating multiple days to do trades on.
One thing that feels pretty good is that all of the stocks in my IRA are actually up right now. Not the case with Cathy's, but it's going to take some work to get hers back on the up side. That account was started at a pretty high place in the market. Especially in the case of HPQ. That sucker was down over 15 bucks at one point. It's almost back within 10 now, but it will probably be awhile before we see that one on the plus side.
I'm starting to wonder if the stocks in Cathy's account are volatile enough, as a group, to work for this method. We went through a pretty rough period since I started that group and still never bought anything. I guess that could be looked upon as a sign of stability, which you need with AIM. There will always be times with any given group of 5 stocks, where one or two of them either takes a huge dive or just starts climbing to the stars. It's the one thing you can count on with stocks: volatility.
I look at the kid's accounts over the weekend, because they are in mutual funds, and I know they aren't going to change before the end of Monday. I don't know how I ended up doing the 4th Monday of the month, but that's the day I use for all the accounts. Just makes it easier that way. I'll really get screwed up if I start creating multiple days to do trades on.
One thing that feels pretty good is that all of the stocks in my IRA are actually up right now. Not the case with Cathy's, but it's going to take some work to get hers back on the up side. That account was started at a pretty high place in the market. Especially in the case of HPQ. That sucker was down over 15 bucks at one point. It's almost back within 10 now, but it will probably be awhile before we see that one on the plus side.
I'm starting to wonder if the stocks in Cathy's account are volatile enough, as a group, to work for this method. We went through a pretty rough period since I started that group and still never bought anything. I guess that could be looked upon as a sign of stability, which you need with AIM. There will always be times with any given group of 5 stocks, where one or two of them either takes a huge dive or just starts climbing to the stars. It's the one thing you can count on with stocks: volatility.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Market Moving Again
Wow - I guess I've been a little preoccupied with other activities. Finally something happens in the market, I actually do a trade in one of my accounts, and I don't even post until halfway through the next month! The Dow just broke over 11,000and last month my IRA account went from seeming far away from any trade to DD breaking way out and pulling the whole account to a point of needing to shed some stock. Even Cathy's account is showing some life. It is no longer close to a buy signal. Now IT's more in the middle of the range, like mine was last month.
DD is still moving - it's over 46 now (that's over double what I paid for it last year!) It's the main reason my account went way into the sell signal on the Market Order part of the AIM formula, so I sold 5 shares of it. The market hasn't shown any sign of tiredness since, though. Like I said, in the last couple days it crossed the 11,000 point and is continuing today.
Maybe I got lulled a little because the market hasn't been moving in large chunks. Just mostly 40-60 points a day, and an occasional 100+ day. Sure there are down days, but they have been pretty few and far between in the last few weeks. As we know with everything, nothing goes straight in one direction forever. I've been using that rule to trade some of my Volatile Stocks Options, which I report on in my other blog. I found that every time anything moves in one direction for too long, it creates a kind of bubble, and has to correct itself. I guess it's just human nature. After all, humans ARE at the bottom of all this, right?
That reminds me - I went against my rule of not touching the cash part of your account. I used it for some of the option trades I was doing. I guess it's ok if you can win enough to make your balance go up, and if you don't, you can reimburse yourself. Otherwise, bad idea. I'm down in my cash now from doing that, and I am in the process of reimbursing myself. I won't do it anymore until I am caught up. Just have to use self-discipline. Sometimes I'm bad about that. Shame on me.
Well, I guess it's only a couple weeks until the next check-point. I'll try to not be tardy this time.
DD is still moving - it's over 46 now (that's over double what I paid for it last year!) It's the main reason my account went way into the sell signal on the Market Order part of the AIM formula, so I sold 5 shares of it. The market hasn't shown any sign of tiredness since, though. Like I said, in the last couple days it crossed the 11,000 point and is continuing today.
Maybe I got lulled a little because the market hasn't been moving in large chunks. Just mostly 40-60 points a day, and an occasional 100+ day. Sure there are down days, but they have been pretty few and far between in the last few weeks. As we know with everything, nothing goes straight in one direction forever. I've been using that rule to trade some of my Volatile Stocks Options, which I report on in my other blog. I found that every time anything moves in one direction for too long, it creates a kind of bubble, and has to correct itself. I guess it's just human nature. After all, humans ARE at the bottom of all this, right?
That reminds me - I went against my rule of not touching the cash part of your account. I used it for some of the option trades I was doing. I guess it's ok if you can win enough to make your balance go up, and if you don't, you can reimburse yourself. Otherwise, bad idea. I'm down in my cash now from doing that, and I am in the process of reimbursing myself. I won't do it anymore until I am caught up. Just have to use self-discipline. Sometimes I'm bad about that. Shame on me.
Well, I guess it's only a couple weeks until the next check-point. I'll try to not be tardy this time.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Some Recent Observations
The market seems to still be in a trading range these days, so I thought I would post some observations about the various accounts I am managing.
The strange thing is, my account has been going up, and Cathy's has been going down. I know that the stocks for Cathy's account were generally bought at the peak of the market, but they've basically gone in different directions over the past month - it's just weird to have a group of five stocks go in a completely different direction than another group of five stocks, unless the stocks in each group are in particular sectors. The market, as a whole, is down over the last month, just slightly. That tells me that the Dogs, for some reason are up as a group. I know that's not always the case. There are many times where the market is going up and the Dogs are going the other way. Doesn't really happen over the long term, though, and I know both of these accounts will, in the bigger picture, act generally the same way as the market. It always evens out that way. Now, granted, a five-stock account can be really affected by a fairly large move by one stock, but this hasen't reaaly happened in this case.
Cathy's account is within a couple hundred dollars (that's just under 4%) of sending a buy signal, and that's under the Market Order column. It's been showing on the 'buy' side for awhile now under the Buy/Sell Advice column. Now, the market could get volatile enough to have the account dip under that level and then go back up before the date that I do the update (again, I've learned my lesson not to trade this method any other day but the designated one.) But from what I've seen, once things are going in a direction, they don't stop. They may take a couple or three deviations from the direction, but they generally go much further than you think they will once they get going.
My account is not close to being traded. Especially since the market's been heading slightly lower recently. It's doesn't have a real strong direction right now, though. It could literally go either way. And like I said before, with this long of a trading range, when it goes, it will probably really go.
The strange thing is, my account has been going up, and Cathy's has been going down. I know that the stocks for Cathy's account were generally bought at the peak of the market, but they've basically gone in different directions over the past month - it's just weird to have a group of five stocks go in a completely different direction than another group of five stocks, unless the stocks in each group are in particular sectors. The market, as a whole, is down over the last month, just slightly. That tells me that the Dogs, for some reason are up as a group. I know that's not always the case. There are many times where the market is going up and the Dogs are going the other way. Doesn't really happen over the long term, though, and I know both of these accounts will, in the bigger picture, act generally the same way as the market. It always evens out that way. Now, granted, a five-stock account can be really affected by a fairly large move by one stock, but this hasen't reaaly happened in this case.
Cathy's account is within a couple hundred dollars (that's just under 4%) of sending a buy signal, and that's under the Market Order column. It's been showing on the 'buy' side for awhile now under the Buy/Sell Advice column. Now, the market could get volatile enough to have the account dip under that level and then go back up before the date that I do the update (again, I've learned my lesson not to trade this method any other day but the designated one.) But from what I've seen, once things are going in a direction, they don't stop. They may take a couple or three deviations from the direction, but they generally go much further than you think they will once they get going.
My account is not close to being traded. Especially since the market's been heading slightly lower recently. It's doesn't have a real strong direction right now, though. It could literally go either way. And like I said before, with this long of a trading range, when it goes, it will probably really go.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Trading Range
The market has been trading in a fairly small range now for like 3 months. Depending on how long this goes on, it should break out quite a ways either way.
Now, I named this post 'Trading Range' because of that market fact. With this kind of account, it's more of a 'Non-Trading Range.' We won't have anything to do until it breaks out. So, like I said in the last post, I'll just keep posting after I update the spreadsheets for all my accounts.
The latest looks like this:
Cathy's is the only one that's showing a 'buy' signal, albeit a small one, under buy/sell advice, since I bought all her stocks pretty much at the top of the market, her account has come down the most. Now, that doesn't mean I am buying any stock. There has to be an amount in the 'Market order' column. By the way, her stocks are HD, HPQ, SBUX, SNE, and WFMI. I use different criteria for her group. She wants to own companies that are responsible in the world. Successful companies that have any liquidity (as well as stability) in this category are not very plentiful, sadly. Says something about our society, huh?
For my sons, I use a Janus fund called Orion. They're accounts have been going for quite awhile and working quite well. They'd really be working well if they hadn't pulled money out for 'emergencies.' I notice the longer you follow the rules of this method, and leave an account alone, the better it works.
I do like the Dogs one, because the cash reserves are constantly growing from the dividends, even though, for the most part, the companies aren't exactly the 'be responsible in the world' type. HD is the only one of the group that most people would look at and say, "yeah, they really are worldly responsible." Meaning, they give money to good causes, aren't wasteful or polluting, and try to have a goal other than just to line their own pockets. Who knows? Cathy's account could end up out-performing mine - the companies do fit all the criteria that Robert Lichello had for stocks he suggested in his book. A couple of them, especially WFMI, are REALLY volatile, which is the name of the game for AIM. That's why I've always avoided Kraft. Food companies are notorious for just sitting there. The main thing is, set up some rules and follow them. I have a feeling the stocks in Cathy's account will stay the same longer than the ones in the Dogs account will. I've practically changed the whole thing out in the short time I've had that account. Not good. Hmmm...yeah, the only one that is in the original account is HD. Imagine that!
Now, I named this post 'Trading Range' because of that market fact. With this kind of account, it's more of a 'Non-Trading Range.' We won't have anything to do until it breaks out. So, like I said in the last post, I'll just keep posting after I update the spreadsheets for all my accounts.
The latest looks like this:
Cathy's is the only one that's showing a 'buy' signal, albeit a small one, under buy/sell advice, since I bought all her stocks pretty much at the top of the market, her account has come down the most. Now, that doesn't mean I am buying any stock. There has to be an amount in the 'Market order' column. By the way, her stocks are HD, HPQ, SBUX, SNE, and WFMI. I use different criteria for her group. She wants to own companies that are responsible in the world. Successful companies that have any liquidity (as well as stability) in this category are not very plentiful, sadly. Says something about our society, huh?
For my sons, I use a Janus fund called Orion. They're accounts have been going for quite awhile and working quite well. They'd really be working well if they hadn't pulled money out for 'emergencies.' I notice the longer you follow the rules of this method, and leave an account alone, the better it works.
I do like the Dogs one, because the cash reserves are constantly growing from the dividends, even though, for the most part, the companies aren't exactly the 'be responsible in the world' type. HD is the only one of the group that most people would look at and say, "yeah, they really are worldly responsible." Meaning, they give money to good causes, aren't wasteful or polluting, and try to have a goal other than just to line their own pockets. Who knows? Cathy's account could end up out-performing mine - the companies do fit all the criteria that Robert Lichello had for stocks he suggested in his book. A couple of them, especially WFMI, are REALLY volatile, which is the name of the game for AIM. That's why I've always avoided Kraft. Food companies are notorious for just sitting there. The main thing is, set up some rules and follow them. I have a feeling the stocks in Cathy's account will stay the same longer than the ones in the Dogs account will. I've practically changed the whole thing out in the short time I've had that account. Not good. Hmmm...yeah, the only one that is in the original account is HD. Imagine that!
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Cruising Along
...Well, maybe not exactly cruising. The account has come way off it's highs back in March or so.
By the way, I'm sorry I haven't posted in so long. I know I don't have many readers, but I may have more if I just put something in here once in awhile.
Anyway - I discovered this morning that the Dogs website once again has all five of the stocks in the account as part of the current Dogs. Of course, DD and MRK aren't small dogs anymore, and they haven't been since just a few months after I bought them. I sold some MRK in March when the market hit it's highs, and probably should have sold something in April as well, but my computer went out and I had to revamp the spreadsheet. Luckily I had some copies of it in my wife's laptop or I would have been screwed. I'm still struggling trying to get stuff back. Anyway, I wasn't able to get access to the spreadsheet until the 29th, like a week later, and by that time the bottom had dropped out of the market, and it hasn't recovered since. Now I'm down close to even on the sheet and probably months from any further transactions. The dividends are still paying, though, and I'm up to almost $500 in my cash. I would have crossed that point last month, accept for the $30 IRA fee that Zecco charges it's clients. I've re-put that on my calender for next year to switch my account to OptionsHouse. I put my wife's IRA in there and it's great. $2.95 commissions and NO FEE! Hopefully it will still be that way next year.
The account is still up quite a ways, though, and starting to show signs of health. Even though we are in the middle of a fairly hefty correction, the only stocks that are down are T and PFE, neither of which moved much in the rally. I am in no danger of having to adjust anything at this point, and in waiting mode.
In the future, I'll make a point of posting every time the Update period passes, whether I have interesting stuff to say or not.
By the way, I'm sorry I haven't posted in so long. I know I don't have many readers, but I may have more if I just put something in here once in awhile.
Anyway - I discovered this morning that the Dogs website once again has all five of the stocks in the account as part of the current Dogs. Of course, DD and MRK aren't small dogs anymore, and they haven't been since just a few months after I bought them. I sold some MRK in March when the market hit it's highs, and probably should have sold something in April as well, but my computer went out and I had to revamp the spreadsheet. Luckily I had some copies of it in my wife's laptop or I would have been screwed. I'm still struggling trying to get stuff back. Anyway, I wasn't able to get access to the spreadsheet until the 29th, like a week later, and by that time the bottom had dropped out of the market, and it hasn't recovered since. Now I'm down close to even on the sheet and probably months from any further transactions. The dividends are still paying, though, and I'm up to almost $500 in my cash. I would have crossed that point last month, accept for the $30 IRA fee that Zecco charges it's clients. I've re-put that on my calender for next year to switch my account to OptionsHouse. I put my wife's IRA in there and it's great. $2.95 commissions and NO FEE! Hopefully it will still be that way next year.
The account is still up quite a ways, though, and starting to show signs of health. Even though we are in the middle of a fairly hefty correction, the only stocks that are down are T and PFE, neither of which moved much in the rally. I am in no danger of having to adjust anything at this point, and in waiting mode.
In the future, I'll make a point of posting every time the Update period passes, whether I have interesting stuff to say or not.
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